AI outbids everyone
- Data-center spending > $700B this year
- AI memory (HBM) uses ~3× the wafer per bit
- DRAM + NAND up 300%+ vs a year ago
- Relief only when new fabs ramp: late 2027–2028
The core idea
One coin, two sides
Click the coin to flip it
The money isn't disappearing — it's moving from people who buy devices to the companies that make chips and the shareholders of AI firms.
The catch: what would make gadgets cheap again (an AI slowdown and a memory glut) is exactly what would crash AI stocks. Relief for one side means pain for the other.
What's happening
Three shocks, stacked
Any one of these alone would be manageable. Together, while interest rates rise, they create real stagflation risk.
Iran-war energy shock
- War since 28 Feb; Hormuz mostly closed
- Brent ~$105 a barrel
- Qatar helium (30–38% of world supply) disrupted — chip fabs need it
- US gasoline +27% vs a year ago
Tariffs & fragmentation
- 25% US tariff on some advanced chips
- 10–12.5% tariffs on ~60 economies since 24 July
- US–China rare-earth truce expires Nov 2026
- Goods trade growth: 4.6% to 1.9%
+ rates
Fed hiked on 16 Sept for the first time since 2023 (to 3.75–4%). ECB hiked to 2.5%. US 10-year borrowing cost ~5.17%, highest since 2007. Rate hikes can't make more DRAM or oil — they only cool demand elsewhere.
Price tracker
What got more expensive
Price changes announced or forecast in 2026. Bars scale to the largest item in the current filter.
Fewer devices, higher prices
Industry revenue can hold up even as unit sales collapse — budget buyers and budget brands get pushed out.
Your example, decoded
A camera launch, in economists' words
Click each step to see the term economists use and the 2026 evidence.
How companies adapt
What economists say
Eight theories that explain it
Established ideas from economics, each applied to what's happening now.
Macro dashboard
The economy right now
StressWatchHolding up
Area by area
What it means for…
Timeline
How we got here, what's next
Scroll sideways → · solid = happened · dashed = expected
Scenario explorer
Four ways this could go
My judgment, not a forecast. Pick a scenario to see what happens to each part of the economy.
Worst realistic combination: scenarios 2 and 3 at the same time — an AI market crash during an energy-driven inflation spike.
Side effects
Things you might not think of
What to watch
Signposts
Indicators that show which scenario is unfolding.
| Signal | Now | Relief if… | Danger if… |
|---|
Bottom line
Off, not broken
The price system is routing scarce chips to the highest bidder: AI. Costs land on consumers, especially the lower half; gains land on chipmakers and shareholders. Chips alone mean pricier gadgets and slower progress, not a crisis. Real crisis risk comes from energy shock + high rates + AI-concentrated markets. Don't expect 2025 prices back soon — waiting for a crash is a bet on scenario 2.
Sources
Where the numbers come from
Disclaimer. Figures come from analyst and news reports as of 26 Sept 2026, some via secondary outlets — verify before relying on them. Theories are mainstream economics; scenarios are reasoning, not predictions. Not investment advice.